世界觀｜2023生育率最高國家出爐，發達與生育間是否有必然聯系？

2023-08-27 19:35:48來源：正觀新聞

03:31

今年的生育率統計雖遲但到，由Statista、Wisevoter等調查統計網站數據陸續出爐。

(資料圖)

Tough late, this year"s fertility statistics have been released by Statista, Wisevoter and other statistics survey websites.

生育率最高的 10 個國家中，有 9 個位于非洲。

Nine of the 10 countries with the highest fertility rates are in Africa.

在西非國家尼日爾，每名婦女接近生育 7 個孩子，是世界上生育率最高的國家。

Niger, a West African country, has the highest birth rate in the world. Here, each woman gives birth to nearly 7 children.

其次是中非國家安哥拉，每名婦女接近生育6個孩子。然后是剛果和馬里，這一數字都接近于6。

Next is Angola in Central Africa, with nearly six children born by each woman. Thencomes Congo and Mali, both with numbers closer to six.

榜上有名的還有乍得、烏干達、索馬里等，較多是第三世界國家。

Also on the list are Chad, Uganda, Somalia, and many other third world countries.

全球人口約為 70 億，非洲大陸約占 11 億。

The global population is about 7 billion, with the African continent accounting for about 1.1 billion.

如今，一個國家的人口大幅增長，要么與經濟不景氣、缺乏認識和預防措施有關，要么與惡劣的生活條件有關。

Nowadays, significant population growth in a country is either related to the poor economy, lack of awareness and prevention measures about physiology, or poor living conditions.

而每當人們聊起生育率，我們還會關注是否與國家的發達程度間有著若有似無的聯系。

When we talk about fertility rates, we also focus on whether there is any correlation with the development of a country.

說起少子、老齡，人們會想起的一個標志性國家，就是日本。

Speaking of low fertility and aging populations, one symbolic country is Japan.

首先，日本的恬靜生活、科技創新，以及自然美景、制造精品的匠心精神，讓無數人神往。

First of all, Japan"s quiet life, technological innovation, natural beauty, and craftsmanship have attracted countless people.

據日本媒體《日本經濟新聞》8月最新研究顯示，日本“一生無子”的女性最多或達42%，男性50%。

According to the latest research of the Japanese media Nihon Keizai Shimbunin August, the number of Japanese women without children in their lifetime is up to 42% and that of men 50%.

這在發達國家中也是非常突出的水平。

This is also a very prominent level, even in developed countries.

人口學將50歲時沒有孩子的女性視為“終身無孩”，日本女性3人中可能有1個人度過沒有孩子的一生，日本男性可能每2人中就有1人沒有孩子。

Demography considers a woman who has no kid at age 50 as a "no-kid for life," and one in three Japanese women and one in two Japanese men are likely to live a no-kid life.

日本一橋大學教授小鹽隆士表示:“在養老金、醫療、護理和生活資源等所有領域，如何構筑即使沒有家人也不會面臨不利的安全網，（日本政府等）應該與財政一起盡快啟動討論”。

OSHIO Takashi, a professor at Hitotsubashi University, said, (The Japanese government and others) should start discussions with the finance ministry as soon as possible on how to build a safety net in all areas such as pensions, medical care, nursing care and living resources to prevent people from facing disadvantages even if they do not have families.

日本對于少子的對策，年年都有討論次數呈遞增趨勢，創新的激勵方式也在逐年增加，同樣隱蔽的不生育懲罰措施也在進行中。（如沒有親人的話，很難租到房子）。

In Japan, the number of discussions on the countermeasures to low fertility is increasing every year, the innovative incentive methods about this part are also increasing year by year, and the same hidden punishment measures for no-kid people are also in progress. (If you don"t have relatives, it is difficult to rent an apartment in Japan).

在歐美的發達國家，不生孩子的人也越來越多。

In developed countries like European and American countries, more and more people are not having children.

而在欠發達國家，生子數仍居高位，那么可以達到世界人口數的平衡嗎？答案是，2005年后世界人口數以約0.4%的速度逐年降低。

In less developed countries, birth rates still remain relatively high. Can this lead to a balance in the world"s population? The answer is that the world"s population has been shrinking by about 0.4% per year since 2005.

可以說，全世界范圍內，年輕人結婚生子意愿都在下降。

All over the world, young people"s willingness to marry and have children is declining.

難道越發達、越富有的地方生育率越低嗎？

Do developer and richer places tend to have lower fertility rates?

世界上最富有的人，特斯拉CEO馬斯克鼓吹的就是多生孩子，他自己就有九個娃；

The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, advocates having more children, and he has nine children.

而美媒也很早就開始鼓吹發達國家也許可以不必太擔心生育率降低的問題，“只要國民變得更富裕一點，生育率自然會重新升高”。

The US media also began to advocate that developed countries may not have to worry too much about the problem of fertility reduction: "As long as people become richer, the fertility rate will naturally rise again."

這點合理嗎？進化論預測社會地位和男性生育率成正相關；而英國雜志《經濟學人》預測，人們越富有，其生育的傾向就會越小。

Is that reasonable? Evolution predicts a positive correlation between social status and male fertility. The Economist, a British magazine, predicts that the richer people are, the less inclined they are to have children.

這兩者可以說是從生育的物質基礎到精神需求給出了兩則相反的預測結果。實則關于發達與生育率，兩者只有一些間接的相關性，最直接的相關性應該是社會壓力與意識覺醒。

These two can be said to give two opposite fertility predictions from the material basis and spiritual needs. In fact, there is only some indirect correlation between development and fertility. The most direct correlation should be social pressure and consciousness awakening.

關于是否擁有自己的孩子，人類的社會學、心理學、進化學、生殖醫學，甚至工業化、城市化、女性權利中涉及的方面都有向內探索，

Regarding whether or not to have children, people delve inward to explore aspects related to human sociology, psychology, evolutionary biology, reproductive medicine, and even factors like industrialization, urbanization, and women"s rights.

結果可以說是有關但不是全部有關，人們想從根本上解決這個問題，卻難以得到明確的方向。

The results can be said to be that these factors are related to birth rates, but they are not the only factors at play. People want to solve the problem at the root, but it is difficult to get a clear direction.

年輕人感慨真愛難尋、婚房（貸款）難背，中年人批判社會福利、基礎建設，老年人怒罵：我在你這個年齡，娃都會打醬油了！

Young people sigh that true love is difficult to find, and the marriage house is challenging to afford. Middle-aged people criticize social welfare and infrastructure, and the elderly scold: When I was your age, my baby could buy soy sauce!

而我們在討論生育率的時候，究竟是在討論什么？

What exactly are we talking about when we explore fertility rates?

無論你的回答是個人的情感慘痛經歷，還是社會對育兒的種種不公，都是合理的結果。

Whether your answer is a personal emotional tragedy or social injustice about parenting, they are all reasonable.

就像那位日本專家說的一樣，也許大家都不生孩子的社會有天會來臨，如果這樣，就創造一個無后代也友好型社會，

Like the Japanese expert said, maybe one day we"ll have a society where nobody has children. If that were to occur, let"s hope we can create a society that is friendly towards those without descendants

讓各種不同的選擇都能有處安放，不讓本就孤獨的靈魂無處可依。

And can accept different choices, ensuring that lonely souls have somewhere to find solace.

（來源：正觀新聞）

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